Saturday, May 24, 2008
Friday, May 23, 2008
North Carolina
In a Republican poll, neither the Republican candidate for President, Senate or Governor has reached 50%. The gubernatorial election was presumed to be a seriously contested one, but if the Presidential and/or Senatorial race in the state remains competitive, it would be a significant tactical victory for the Democrats. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_civitas_north_carolina_1.php
Where is Tom Daschle?
Barack Obama's weaknesses are matched only by his strengths. It is his extraordinary political and policy skill that has managed to cancel out the many paper difficulties he faces - little traditional foreign policy experience, little executive experience, and race.
Vice Presidents rarely gain votes for candidates, but they can confirm them. The best recent example is George Bush in 2000. He was also a candidate whose likability was endangered by the sense that he was simply not sure-footed enough for Presidential decisions. The traditional answer to this dilemma is to surround the candidate with those figures. Consider again the example of Bush: the Vice President was Dick Cheney, former Chief of Staff and Secretary of Defense. With them at the convention were former Joint Chief of Staff Chairman Colin Powell and former SecDef Donald Rumsfeld. With the exception of Powell, none of these figures were intended to add votes to Bush, but to confirm them. They helped to secure people inclined towards Bush, but who remained wary.
So who could Obama use to do that? To balance himself out, he needs older to his younger, white to his black, establishment to his new, experienced to his original. The intention isn't to whitewash his identity, but to offer the possibility to getting the best of both worlds - Obama's innovations tempered by the knowledge of the past. The current lists are remarkably absent of that. The safe solution which Obama may not feel forced to take (or if he begins to feel desperate may feel forced not to take) is Tom Daschle - He is impeccably Obama's opposite but was still an early supporter of the Senator. His aides and supporters are deeply inserted into his organization. And for more Dick Cheney references, he was even assigned the role of vetting his potential running mates. This doesn't mean he will be chosen, but it does mean that he will almost certainly be considered on his very short list.
Vice Presidents rarely gain votes for candidates, but they can confirm them. The best recent example is George Bush in 2000. He was also a candidate whose likability was endangered by the sense that he was simply not sure-footed enough for Presidential decisions. The traditional answer to this dilemma is to surround the candidate with those figures. Consider again the example of Bush: the Vice President was Dick Cheney, former Chief of Staff and Secretary of Defense. With them at the convention were former Joint Chief of Staff Chairman Colin Powell and former SecDef Donald Rumsfeld. With the exception of Powell, none of these figures were intended to add votes to Bush, but to confirm them. They helped to secure people inclined towards Bush, but who remained wary.
So who could Obama use to do that? To balance himself out, he needs older to his younger, white to his black, establishment to his new, experienced to his original. The intention isn't to whitewash his identity, but to offer the possibility to getting the best of both worlds - Obama's innovations tempered by the knowledge of the past. The current lists are remarkably absent of that. The safe solution which Obama may not feel forced to take (or if he begins to feel desperate may feel forced not to take) is Tom Daschle - He is impeccably Obama's opposite but was still an early supporter of the Senator. His aides and supporters are deeply inserted into his organization. And for more Dick Cheney references, he was even assigned the role of vetting his potential running mates. This doesn't mean he will be chosen, but it does mean that he will almost certainly be considered on his very short list.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Second Hillary ally talks VP
Chuck Schumer, fellow NY Senator, is now alright with an Obama-Hillary ticket.
After the Rahm Emanuel brush-back to Ted Kennedy, despite the uncertain expert opinions about such a ticket, it is looking increasingly likely that Hillary, at least, wants a Vice-Presidential offer. That doesn't of course mean Obama will make that offer.
After the Rahm Emanuel brush-back to Ted Kennedy, despite the uncertain expert opinions about such a ticket, it is looking increasingly likely that Hillary, at least, wants a Vice-Presidential offer. That doesn't of course mean Obama will make that offer.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
With enemies like these
Maybe al-Maliki does have a chance.
"Insisting that he was not a political supporter of the prime minister, he said he was nevertheless so grateful for the security improvements that he and colleagues had downloaded Mr. Maliki’s face onto their mobile telephones as screensavers."
It's articles like these that make it so difficult for the lazy to know who's winning and who's losing. Then again, if even the effortful (emphasis on the bottom) aren't certain, then what chance do the rest of us have?
"Insisting that he was not a political supporter of the prime minister, he said he was nevertheless so grateful for the security improvements that he and colleagues had downloaded Mr. Maliki’s face onto their mobile telephones as screensavers."
It's articles like these that make it so difficult for the lazy to know who's winning and who's losing. Then again, if even the effortful (emphasis on the bottom) aren't certain, then what chance do the rest of us have?
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